As the College Football Playoff expands and competitive balance in the SEC remains razor-thin, the question hangs in the summer air: Are the Oklahoma Sooners legitimate contenders for a spot in the 2025 College Football Playoff?

Chris Phillips, host of SEC Unfiltered, believes Oklahoma might be the “next tier” dark horse capable of breaking through in college football’s dominant conference. “If there’s a team that’s going to pop in the SEC, that’s one of those dark horses, like that next tier, I think it could very well be Oklahoma,” Phillips said Tuesday.

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Oklahoma enters its second SEC season with tempered but rising expectations after a turbulent 2024 campaign that saw the Sooners finish with a 6-7 record and numerous injuries to key players. The offseason brought sweeping roster changes, highlighted by the acquisition of quarterback John Mateer from Washington State and running back Jaydn Ott, both among the most coveted transfers in the nation. Mateer tallied nearly 3,000 passing yards and 29 touchdowns last year and adds a dynamic rushing element, while Ott is showing up on preseason All-American lists as a central piece of the new-look offense.

First-year offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle joins head coach Brent Venables in retooling a unit that must improve on last season’s struggles, especially with former starter Jackson Arnold’s transfer to Auburn. Despite last year’s defensive success, the Sooners’ challenge will be to mesh new offensive talent quickly against an unforgiving SEC slate.

Why the Optimism?

• Expanded Playoff, Opportunity Knocks: The move to a 12-team playoff boosts SEC teams’ hopes, making a bounce-back season more relevant than ever. If Oklahoma can secure upsets against top opponents and handle business in close games, they could enter the playoff picture late in the season.
• Elite Transfers & Offensive Overhaul: Mateer and Ott, coupled with notable receivers and an experienced offensive line, provide reasons for optimism. Analyst Ari Wasserman called Mateer “the single most influential transfer in the 2025 portal cycle” and warned that Oklahoma could be dangerous if the defense stays strong and the offense gels.
• Toughest Schedule—A Blessing and a Curse: With road trips to Tennessee and Alabama, the annual battle with Texas, and a season finale against LSU, Oklahoma faces one of the nation’s toughest roads. Their ability to win one-possession games and capitalize on upset opportunities will be decisive.

Despite improved national title odds—moving from +7000 last year to +5000—the Sooners remain outside most preseason top-10 lists, ranked 24th by some outlets. ESPN’s college football power index puts them at 17th overall, but only 10th in the SEC’s future outlook rankings. Many analysts see Oklahoma as a high-variance wild card: a team whose season could swing from middling bowl eligibility to a possible playoff berth.With dynamic new leadership on offense, returning stars on defense, and one of the SEC’s most grueling schedules, Oklahoma finds itself on the national stage as a potential dark horse. The consensus? While the Sooners are not among the preseason favorites, few are discounting their ability to “pop” in 2025 and crash the College Football Playoff party—if everything comes together at the right time.